2nd wave, fears often unwarranted.

In the week of deconfinment let’s look at the numbers to avoid being overwhelmed by fear.

-Under-45s account for between 1% and 2% of deaths due to Covid, thus between 260 and 550 deaths in France for the whole crisis to date. That’s twice as many as the number of road deaths per year for the same age group. (ref, 2018). Other references: influenza usually kills between 10,000 and 15,000 people a year in France, tobacco, 73,000 of all ages.

-The comorbidity rate for covid is 67%. This means that 2/3 of those who died of covid were already affected by another pathology, to which the covid was added. People under the age of 45 who have died of covid alone, therefore, represent less than 200 people in France.

Deconfinement will certainly increase contamination, but given what is happening in other countries such as Germany that have already partially passed the milestone, it is reasonable to assume that the second wave will not be (immediately at least) as important as what can be heard.

If you are under 45 and healthy, be vigilant, but remember that quitting smoking, being careful behind the wheel, monitoring your diet or playing sports will protect you much better than a health overprotection against a virus that you will most certainly face at some point, if you haven’t already done so. , like a flu.

If you are a subject at risk, on the other hand, you don’t have to think you’re invincible since the deconfinement has happened, stay alert, more than before.

All sources here:

% comorbidity covid https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/guyane/l-obesite-facteur-de-comorbidite-et-phenomene-inquietant-en-guyane-824894.html

Road deaths in 2018: https://www.securite-routiere.gouv.fr/actualites/bilan-definitif-de-laccidentalite-routiere-2018

Road deaths in 2018 by age: https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/512729/repartition-personnes-tuees-circulation-routiere-par-age-france/

Death covid by age: https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/1104103/victimes-coronavirus-age-france/ #déconfinement #deuxiemevague #covid #statistiques #coronavirus

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *